OPEC+ Set to Accelerate Oil Output Hikes Amid Compliance Disputes and Market Strategy Shift

OPEC+ is preparing to accelerate oil output increases in the coming months, potentially adding up to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to global supply by November, according to five sources within the alliance. The move, led by Saudi Arabia, marks a significant policy shift aimed at penalizing members who have failed to comply with production quotas, notably Iraq and Kazakhstan.

The oil-producing alliance — which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with non-OPEC partners like Russia — has surprised markets by approving a larger-than-expected production hike for May. Despite sluggish demand and soft prices, the group is moving forward with plans to phase out voluntary output cuts much faster than previously agreed.

Saudi Arabia’s latest strategy signals a departure from years of efforts to stabilize oil markets through coordinated supply cuts. Instead, the Kingdom appears focused on expanding its market share, after growing frustration over non-compliance by fellow producers.

As part of an agreement reached in December 2024, OPEC+ had planned to unwind the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts gradually by the end of September 2026. However, the group agreed in April to accelerate the process starting in May. A further output hike for June was approved this past weekend, lifting the total new supply planned for April to June to nearly 1 million bpd.

Sources indicate that OPEC+ will likely authorize an additional 411,000 bpd increase in July during its next policy meeting in June. Further phased hikes in August, September, and October are also being considered if quota violators fail to correct their overproduction.

“If compliance does not improve, the full 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts could be reversed by November,” said one of the sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks.

Tensions within the group have escalated, particularly after Kazakhstan’s energy minister declared in April that national interests would take precedence over OPEC+ commitments. The country’s oil output surpassed its quota last month despite a 3 percent decline in overall production.

The developments come ahead of a planned visit to Saudi Arabia by U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expected to discuss arms sales and a nuclear agreement. Trump has frequently urged OPEC+ to boost output in a bid to curb inflation and reduce gasoline prices at home.

Oil prices have already reacted to the shift. Brent crude recently fell below $60 per barrel — its lowest in four years — as investors digest the implications of increased supply and renewed concerns over a global economic slowdown, amplified by ongoing trade tensions.

Analysts warn that prices may remain under pressure unless OPEC+ can restore discipline within its ranks. “The news of accelerating hikes will weigh on oil prices until compliance improves,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.