Cautious Optimism and Skepticism Follow US-Brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan Agreement

Residents and political figures in Armenia and Azerbaijan reacted with a mix of guarded optimism and doubt on Saturday, a day after their leaders signed a US-brokered agreement in Washington aimed at easing decades of hostilities.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan inked the deal on Friday at the White House, with US President Donald Trump standing between them as they shook hands. Trump underscored the moment by clasping their hands together, marking what many see as a symbolic step toward reconciliation.

While the accord stops short of being a formal peace treaty, it is viewed as a significant diplomatic milestone in normalizing relations between the two countries, which remain technically at war. The agreement does not resolve the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but historically populated and controlled by ethnic Armenians until recent years.

The deal follows Azerbaijan’s swift 2023 military campaign that forced Armenian troops and ethnic Armenians to withdraw from the region. Among its provisions is the creation of a transit corridor—dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”—reflecting changing geopolitical realities and the decline of Russian influence in the South Caucasus.

Political Reactions in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani opposition leader Ali Karimli welcomed the agreement, calling it a step closer to peace and a blow to Moscow’s sway in the region. Arif Hajjili, chairman of the Musavat Party, praised the absence of Russian involvement in the talks, suggesting long-term stability depends on further diminishing Russian power—something he linked to the outcome of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

However, Hajjili cautioned that Armenia’s economic reliance on Russia and the presence of millions of Azerbaijanis in Russia remain potential pressure points for Moscow.

On the streets of Baku, some residents expressed optimism. “We needed a strong state as guarantor—Russia couldn’t do it, but the US succeeded,” said Gunduz Aliyev. Another resident, Ali Mammadov, predicted open borders and normalized relations with Armenia in the near future.

Mixed Sentiments in Armenia

In Yerevan, reactions were more divided. Some, like Edvard Avoyan, voiced uncertainty over the deal’s details. Entrepreneur Hrach Ghasumyan highlighted potential economic gains from new transport and energy routes, which could reduce Armenia’s isolation.

Others, however, doubted the accord’s value. “This agreement offers us nothing; the concessions are entirely one-sided,” said Ruzanna Ghazaryan, reflecting ongoing mistrust between the two nations.

Though far from resolving the conflict’s root causes, the US-mediated accord signals a possible shift in a decades-long standoff—one that both nations and the wider region will be watching closely.