Traffic in Strait of Hormuz Hits Highest Levels Since Early War Period

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged to its highest levels since the early days of the ongoing war, as more countries appear to have reached agreements with Iran to ensure safe passage.

Over the past weekend, 21 vessels passed through the strategic shipping lane, marking the highest total recorded over a two-day period since early March, when traffic had been declining. Thirteen of these vessels were bound for the Arabian Sea. Iranian ships continue to dominate the corridor, though an oil tanker carrying Iraqi crude passed through on Sunday after Iran granted an exemption to “brotherly Iraq.” Eight liquefied petroleum gas tankers operated by India also transited the strait following negotiations that allowed New Delhi to purchase Iranian gas for the first time in years.

Although these numbers remain far below pre-war levels, when around 135 ships crossed daily, more nations are now managing to secure passage. Last week, two container ships linked to China passed through on a second attempt, alongside two vessels associated with Japan.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage linking the Arabian Gulf to international waters, has drawn global attention as the war enters its sixth week. US President Donald Trump has issued threats against Iran, warning of attacks on civilian infrastructure and pledging to “unleash hell” if the strait is not reopened. Tehran, however, has indicated that it will not resume full passage until the transit fees it collects cover the damages caused by the conflict.

According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler in Singapore, “Iran is responding to the requests of its partners while strengthening its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Transit remains subject to Iran’s discretion, and the situation could change at any time if the conflict escalates.” Tehran is also moving forward with legislation to formalize its control over the strait and establish transit fees, institutionalizing a payment system that has operated informally for weeks.

Despite these arrangements, the terms of safe passage deals remain opaque. Publicly acknowledged agreements, such as the weekend deal with Iraq, are rare. Uncertainty persists over which other nations have secured safe passage, including vessels linked to France and Japan. Pakistan, for instance, has been offered permission to move 20 ships out of the Arabian Gulf and is exploring options including deploying additional tankers or reflagging vessels to secure essential commodities.

Most vessels granted clearance have navigated along routes hugging the Iranian coastline, although an increasing number are now using the opposite shore. Oman, which shares the strait, confirmed on Sunday that it had held talks with Iran to ensure smooth maritime traffic.

The recent rise in vessel movements highlights Iran’s control over the critical waterway and reflects cautious attempts by regional governments to maintain essential supply routes despite the ongoing conflict.