Strait of Hormuz Traffic Reaches Highest Levels Since Early War Period

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has risen to its highest levels since the early days of the conflict, as more countries strike arrangements with Iran to secure safe passage for ships and cargo. The increase comes as governments facing energy shortages work to move vessels out of the Arabian Gulf under negotiated terms.

A total of 21 vessels passed through the strategic waterway over the weekend, marking the highest two-day figure since early March, when maritime traffic had been steadily declining. Of these, 13 ships were heading toward the Arabian Sea. Despite the increase, traffic remains well below pre-war levels, when roughly 135 ships crossed the strait each day.

Iranian vessels continue to account for most of the movement, highlighting Tehran’s control over the corridor. An oil tanker carrying Iraqi crude was allowed to pass on Sunday after Iran granted what it described as an exemption to “brotherly Iraq.” In another development, eight liquefied petroleum gas tankers operated by India transited the route after New Delhi negotiated the release of some of its ships and completed a purchase of Iranian gas for the first time in years.

Other countries have also managed to move vessels through the strait. Last week, two container ships linked to China successfully crossed on a second attempt, alongside two vessels associated with Japan. These movements suggest a gradual increase in negotiated access, though the terms of such agreements remain unclear.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vital link between the Arabian Gulf and global markets, has become a central focus as the war enters its sixth week. US President Donald Trump has threatened to target infrastructure in Iran if the passage is not fully reopened, warning of severe consequences. Tehran has responded by stating it will not reopen the route entirely until transit fees collected from vessels cover the damages caused by the conflict.

Analysts say Iran is balancing cooperation with partners while tightening its grip on the waterway. “Iran is responding to the requests of its partners while strengthening its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Transit remains subject to Iran’s discretion, and the situation could change at any time if the conflict escalates,” said Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler in Singapore.

Tehran is also advancing plans to formalise its control through legislation that would establish official transit fees, building on a system that has operated informally in recent weeks.

Uncertainty continues to surround the agreements being struck, with limited details available even in publicly acknowledged cases such as the arrangement with Iraq. Pakistan has been offered permission to move 20 ships out of the Gulf and is weighing options including deploying additional tankers and reflagging vessels to secure essential supplies.

Most vessels have so far followed routes close to Iran’s coastline, though some are beginning to use alternative paths along the opposite shore. Oman confirmed it has held talks with Iran aimed at ensuring smoother maritime traffic.

The gradual rise in ship movements reflects cautious efforts by countries to maintain supply chains while navigating a volatile and tightly controlled maritime environment.