El Nino is expected to strengthen further before reaching its peak in December and could become one of the strongest such weather events recorded since at least 1950, the United Nations said on Thursday.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the climate phenomenon is expected to raise temperatures across much of the world and alter rainfall patterns, increasing the threat of drought and flooding in several regions.
“El Nino will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December,” the WMO said in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update.
El Nino develops when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The change affects atmospheric circulation, winds, pressure and rainfall far beyond the Pacific region.
The phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months. It alternates with La Nina, its cooler counterpart, while periods of neutral conditions can occur between the two phases.
The WMO said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to reach exceptionally high levels during October, November and December 2026.
The forecast is based on a consensus among 13 leading national and international meteorological centres.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Nino was already firmly established and strengthening rapidly. The agency estimates there is a near-100 percent chance that the event will continue through February 2027.
Saulo said the current event could rank among the strongest observed since 1950.
She also noted that El Nino itself does not create additional heat in the climate system. Instead, it releases heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere.
“The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it,” Saulo said, adding that there was therefore more heat available to be released.
Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have already risen sharply. The temperature anomaly increased from 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June to 2.5 degrees in August.
For the October to December period, the anomaly is forecast to reach about 3.7C above normal. If confirmed, that would exceed the previous record of 2.6C recorded during the 2015-2016 El Nino.
The effects of El Nino are expected to add to the warming already being driven by human-caused climate change. The previous El Nino helped make 2023 the second-warmest year on record, while 2024 became the warmest, with global temperatures around 1.55C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
El Nino normally reaches its strongest point between November and February, but its influence on global temperatures often becomes more pronounced afterward.
Some areas are already experiencing severe effects. In parts of Central America, drought linked to changing weather patterns has caused significant damage to crops and contributed to animal deaths, highlighting the potential consequences as the event strengthens.
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