Oil Surges as Fears Grow Over Possible US Military Action Against Iran

Global oil prices climbed sharply on Thursday, with Brent crude briefly rising as much as 7%, as reports that the United States may be considering military action against Iran heightened concerns over further disruptions to already strained energy supplies.

Brent crude for June delivery rose to as high as $124.84 a barrel in early trading before easing slightly. The contract, which expires Thursday, has now gained for nine consecutive sessions. The more actively traded July contract also advanced, reaching $113.78 a barrel. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed to $109.64 a barrel, extending gains after a strong rally in the previous session.

Both benchmarks are on course for a fourth straight month of gains. Since the start of the year, Brent has more than doubled, while WTI has surged by more than 90%, reflecting growing instability in the Middle East and tightening global supply.

The latest jump followed a report that US President Donald Trump is expected to receive a briefing on potential military strikes against Iran. According to the report, the options are being considered as Washington seeks to break a diplomatic impasse over Iran’s nuclear programme and regional security issues.

Tensions have remained elevated since the United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran earlier this year. In response, Tehran moved to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments normally pass through the narrow waterway.

Although active combat has paused under a ceasefire, the United States has maintained a blockade on Iranian ports, while negotiations remain stalled. Washington is pressing Iran over its nuclear activities, while Tehran is demanding compensation for war-related damage and a role in overseeing access through the strait.

Analysts say prospects for a quick resolution remain slim. The continued closure of Hormuz has created one of the most severe energy supply disruptions in modern history, forcing countries to draw on strategic reserves and prompting renewed concerns about inflation and economic growth.

Market participants are also watching developments within OPEC+. The alliance is expected to approve a modest increase in output at its upcoming meeting, even as the United Arab Emirates prepares to leave the group. Analysts, however, say the UAE’s departure is unlikely to have a significant immediate effect on supply, given the broader disruptions caused by the conflict.

Some analysts believe high prices will eventually curb demand, with consumers and industries reducing fuel use as costs rise. Yet even a substantial decline in demand may not be enough to offset the current supply shortfall.

With diplomatic efforts stalled and military options under review, energy markets are likely to remain volatile in the weeks ahead.