Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh OPEC+ Supply Boost and Trump’s Tariff Threats on India

Oil prices remained largely unchanged on Tuesday, as investors balanced rising output from OPEC+ with fresh concerns over global demand and potential supply disruptions linked to U.S. trade tensions.

Brent crude futures slipped by one cent to $68.75 a barrel by 9:31 a.m. Saudi time, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by two cents to $66.28. Both benchmarks had declined over 1 percent in the previous session, closing at their lowest levels in a week.

Market analysts attributed the continued softness in oil prices to OPEC+’s recent agreement to boost production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in September. The move represents a reversal of the group’s earlier supply cuts, which had removed roughly 2.5 million bpd from the global market, or about 2.4 percent of worldwide demand.

“OPEC+’s additional capacity is cushioning the market against any potential disruptions in Russian supply,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. However, she noted that the full return of output might be limited by logistical and technical challenges.

At the same time, fears of weakening demand continue to weigh on sentiment. JPMorgan analysts on Tuesday warned that the risk of a U.S. recession remains elevated, citing stagnating labor demand. Meanwhile, China’s latest Politburo meeting signaled a shift away from stimulus measures toward longer-term structural reforms, raising further doubts about oil consumption growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump has renewed threats of punitive tariffs on India over its continued purchases of Russian oil. After slapping a 25 percent tariff on Indian imports in July, Trump hinted at imposing 100 percent secondary sanctions targeting countries that buy Russian crude.

India, the largest buyer of Russian seaborne oil, imported an average of 1.75 million bpd from Russia between January and June — a 1 percent increase from the same period last year, according to trade data cited by Reuters.

New Delhi has pushed back against Trump’s threats, calling the measures “unjustified” and vowing to defend its economic interests, further intensifying trade tensions between the two nations.

Analysts are also closely watching for broader U.S. tariff announcements that could further strain global trade, slow economic growth, and reduce demand for fuel.

Despite current price stability, the oil market remains on edge, caught between a rising supply backdrop and growing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.