Oil Prices Edge Higher as Uncertainty Over Iran-US Talks Fuels Supply Concerns

Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors grew concerned that negotiations between Iran and the United States aimed at reaching a final agreement to end their conflict could stall, raising the prospect of continued supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures gained 33 cents, or 0.45%, to $73.28 a barrel by 06:39 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 34 cents, or 0.49%, to $69.84 a barrel.

Market participants remain focused on diplomatic developments and the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies.

Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis firm Vanda Insights, said shipping through the waterway has resumed but conditions remain uncertain.

“Hormuz continues to reopen but it’s patchy, unpredictable, and not fully transparent. Unless there is a fresh understanding between Washington and Tehran, the market may wait and watch for sustained peace and quiet before crude resumes bearish momentum,” Hari said.

Diplomatic efforts continued on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha for what the White House described as high-level talks. However, Iranian and Qatari officials said discussions would take place through mediators rather than in direct meetings with Iranian representatives. Qatar confirmed that Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani participated in meetings with Witkoff and Kushner.

Oil prices have experienced significant volatility in recent months. Brent crude declined by about $45 a barrel between the first and second quarters of the year, marking its steepest quarterly fall since the 2008 global financial crisis. US crude futures dropped by approximately $31 a barrel over the same period, their largest quarterly decline since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic sharply reduced fuel demand worldwide.

Those declines followed signs of progress toward ending the conflict in the Middle East, reversing the sharp gains recorded during the height of the hostilities.

Analysts have also revised their outlook for next year. A Reuters poll published on Tuesday showed that analysts lowered their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the conflict between Iran and Israel began, citing improving tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and reduced concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.

US Vice President JD Vance said Iran would not be allowed to impose tolls on ships using the strategic waterway. Speaking on The Michael Knowles Show, Vance said oil shipments through the strait had returned to levels seen before the conflict.

Supporting oil prices, preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated that US crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels during the week ending June 26. Gasoline stocks also declined, according to market sources familiar with the report.

Traders are now awaiting official inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration, scheduled for release later on Wednesday, for further indications of supply and demand conditions in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation.