Europe Faces Tough Winter as Low Gas Stocks and Rising Prices Raise Household Bill Risks

Europe is heading towards one of its most difficult winter gas seasons since the energy crisis of 2022, with wholesale prices rising sharply while gas storage levels remain well below their normal seasonal average.

The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month gas price was trading above €66 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday, after briefly exceeding €68. At the start of 2026, the price was around €29 per MWh.

The latest increase has been driven partly by concerns that disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could continue into the winter, limiting energy supplies and intensifying competition for liquefied natural gas.

EU gas storage was 62.99% full at the end of August 24, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. That compares with a five-year average of about 79%.

Germany’s storage facilities were around 51% full, while the Netherlands had filled only 44.3% of available capacity.

Natasha Fielding, editorial manager for gas, LNG, coal and biomass at Argus Media, said European stocks were unusually low for this point of the year. She noted that the last period with similarly low levels was in 2021, before the previous major gas crisis.

European gas consumption is now around 15% to 20% below 2021 levels, according to Oxford Economics. The consultancy said this means the bloc can operate with less gas in storage, although it would need greater reliance on winter LNG imports.

That could create stronger competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has added to those concerns because the waterway normally handles a significant share of global LNG shipments.

Goldman Sachs analysts have warned that gas prices could rise above €100 per MWh in December if Middle Eastern energy exports recover only gradually through 2027.

A prolonged price increase would eventually reach households, although the impact would not be immediate. Existing contracts, hedging arrangements and fixed-price deals can delay the effect of wholesale market movements.

Oxford Economics estimates that it takes about six months on average for wholesale gas price changes to be fully reflected in consumer prices. The timing varies considerably between countries.

In the Netherlands, household prices can respond relatively quickly because of the structure of the retail market. In Germany and Austria, widespread 12-month or 24-month fixed contracts mean the full impact can take close to a year.

France, Italy and Spain could see consumer prices respond within several months.

Italy is considered particularly exposed to a gas price shock because of its high dependence on gas and relatively quick pass-through to consumers, although its storage levels are currently among Europe’s strongest.

Weather will remain a major factor. A colder-than-normal winter would increase heating demand and put additional pressure on already limited supplies, potentially pushing household energy costs higher across the continent.