Asia-Europe Flight Prices Soar Amid Middle East Conflict

Travelers hoping for lower long-haul flight prices this summer are in for a rude awakening. Ticket prices on major routes between Asia and Europe have surged by as much as 560 percent this month, with expectations that they will remain high throughout the summer and into the fall. The spike follows disruptions in the Arabian Gulf, one of the world’s busiest transit hubs, caused by the ongoing war, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy.

Analysis of data from Cirium and online travel agencies shows that average ticket prices for June on seven of the busiest Asia-Europe routes have jumped roughly 70 percent compared to last year. A one-way ticket from Sydney to London now costs over $1,500, nearly double the price in 2025. These figures account for direct flights, one-stop flights, and routes passing through Gulf airports. Industry experts predict that prices will remain about 30 percent higher than last year until October.

The pressure is mirrored in the opposite direction, with Europe-to-Asia flights also seeing major increases. June fares climbed as much as 79 percent year-on-year, and some long-haul routes now cost nearly three times more than a year ago. Disruptions that began on February 28 following the US and Israeli attack on Iran have led to roughly 70,000 flight cancellations, exposing weaknesses in the global aviation network. Airspace closures, limited airport capacity in the Gulf, and soaring fuel costs have all contributed to the surge.

Passenger demand is already showing signs of strain. Summer bookings from Europe to the US are down about 15 percent compared to last year, while flights in the opposite direction dropped 11 percent. Asia-to-Europe bookings, including connections through the Middle East, fell 4.4 percent, according to Cirium. Brian Terry, managing director at Alton Aviation Consultancy, said ticket prices will remain high even if the conflict ends soon. “Any price reductions could take up to three months to travel through the jet fuel supply chain,” he said. “Even as immediate disruptions ease, longer routes, limited capacity, and high fuel costs will maintain upward pressure on prices for months.”

Flights passing through major Middle Eastern airports such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha have been hardest hit. The Hong Kong–London route reached $3,318 as of March 23, a 560 percent increase compared to the previous month. Bangkok to Frankfurt rose 505 percent to $2,870, while Sydney to London climbed 429 percent, highlighting the strain on the “Kangaroo Route,” a key corridor between Australia and the UK.

Rising fuel costs have compounded the problem. Jet fuel, which accounts for about a third of airline operating expenses, has surged as energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz face restrictions. Airlines including Air France-KLM, Cathay Pacific Airways, and Air New Zealand have raised fuel surcharges to offset costs. Hanming Lee, an independent travel analyst, warned that travelers may rethink plans if cancellations, delays, or disruptions continue to mount.