UN Warns Global Temperatures Set to Stay Near Record Highs Through 2030

Global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, the United Nations warned Thursday, raising fresh concerns about climate change and the growing likelihood of breaching critical warming thresholds.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN agency responsible for weather and climate monitoring, said there is a strong possibility that another record-breaking year will occur before 2031, extending a trend that has seen the 11 hottest years on record all take place since 2015.

According to the WMO’s latest Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update, there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest ever recorded.

The report comes as parts of western Europe face intense heat, with Britain and France recording unusually high temperatures for May under a persistent “heat dome” of warm air.

“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the WMO said.

Scientists warned that warming is approaching significant international climate limits established under the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to keep long-term global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and preferably limited to 1.5C.

The WMO said there is a 75 percent probability that the average global temperature across the 2026-2030 period will exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 baseline. Individual years during that period are projected to range between 1.3C and 1.9C above pre-industrial levels.

The agency also estimated a 91 percent chance that at least one year during the next five years will temporarily rise above the 1.5C threshold.

Scientists stressed that temporary breaches do not automatically mean the Paris target has failed, since the agreement refers to long-term warming trends measured over roughly two decades rather than single years.

Last year ranked among the three warmest years ever measured, with global temperatures estimated at more than 1.43C above pre-industrial levels.

The WMO linked part of the continued warming risk to a forecast El Nino event expected toward the end of 2026.

“There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report.

El Nino, a naturally occurring climate pattern involving warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific, can influence weather systems worldwide and often contributes to hotter global conditions.

The report also highlighted growing concerns about the Arctic, where winter temperatures over the next five northern hemisphere seasons are forecast to average 2.8C above the 1991-2020 norm, more than three times the projected global temperature anomaly.

Forecasts point to wetter conditions across the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier patterns are expected over parts of the Amazon, adding to concerns about shifting rainfall and climate extremes worldwide.