Emerging Technologies Could Add 40% to Global Trade by 2040

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has projected that advances in digital and automation technologies could lift the value of cross-border trade in goods and services by nearly 40 per cent by 2040, provided the right policies are in place.

The forecast, published Thursday in the WTO’s flagship World Trade Report 2025, suggests that productivity gains and lower trade costs linked to these technologies may generate significant increases in both commerce and economic output. Under various scenarios, global trade is expected to grow between 34 and 37 per cent over the next 15 years, while global GDP could expand by 12 to 13 per cent.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the findings highlight both the opportunities and the risks ahead. “New technologies have vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to these tools and the ability to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” she wrote in the report’s foreword.

The study emphasizes that trade plays a pivotal role in unlocking growth by ensuring access to essential inputs such as semiconductors, raw materials, and other intermediate goods. In 2023, global trade in such enabling products reached $2.3 trillion.

One scenario in the report estimates that if low- and middle-income economies close half of their current digital infrastructure gap with advanced economies and expand technology adoption, national incomes could rise by 15 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.

Yet the report also highlights mounting challenges. Quantitative restrictions on technology-related goods have surged, rising from 130 measures in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, mostly introduced by high- and upper middle-income economies. Bound tariffs on enabling goods remain steep, with some low-income countries imposing rates as high as 45 per cent.

The WTO cautioned that without strong education, training, and labour market policies, new technologies could deepen inequality within economies. It stressed the importance of inclusive frameworks to ensure that the benefits are broadly shared.

According to the report, WTO members have already raised 80 specific trade concerns linked to these developments. Dedicated discussions have been held under the organisation’s Work Programme on E-Commerce. Broader participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services could also help lower costs and widen access globally.

“With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, these advances can create new growth opportunities across all economies,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “Trade can play a central role in ensuring these opportunities are accessible to all.”