Pakistan Braces for Flood Threat as Chenab River Swells Beyond Capacity

Authorities in Pakistan’s Punjab province warned on Thursday of a potential catastrophe as rising water levels in the Chenab River threatened to overwhelm the Qadirabad barrage, placing millions of residents in nearby towns at risk.

Heavy monsoon rains have swollen rivers across South Asia, leaving devastation on both sides of the India-Pakistan border. Since late June, Pakistan has reported 805 flood-related deaths, while Indian-administered Kashmir has recorded at least 60 fatalities this month. The situation has fueled fears that any flooding attributed to water releases from India could further strain relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, which remain locked in tension after their worst military clash in decades earlier this year.

Officials from Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority described the threat as “a crisis situation,” warning that if the Qadirabad barrage fails, the downstream towns of Chiniot and Hafizabad — home to more than 2.8 million people — could be inundated. “The water level is receding under constant supervision, but it remains at dangerous levels,” one technical expert said, requesting anonymity.

The Qadirabad barrage, a 3,300-foot concrete structure that regulates Chenab’s flow into Punjab’s irrigation network, has been handling more than 900,000 cusecs of water — about 100,000 cusecs above capacity, according to the provincial disaster management authority. On Wednesday, officials resorted to breaching part of the riverbank to divert water before it reached the barrage.

The danger intensified after India released excess water from its dams earlier this week, sending surging flows into Pakistan’s Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab rivers. Pakistan has already evacuated more than 210,000 people from low-lying villages along the rivers. New Delhi has issued three flood warnings since Sunday, which it says are part of routine humanitarian measures when reservoirs reach capacity. India’s water resources ministry has not commented on the latest warning.

In Punjab, at least 12 people were reported dead this week due to flooding, provincial minister Marriyum Aurangzeb confirmed. Visiting the swollen Ravi River, she urged calm: “As one nation, we will face this challenge together. There is no need to panic.”

The floods have disrupted farming in Punjab, Pakistan’s breadbasket and home to nearly half of the country’s 240 million people. The eastern rivers, including the Chenab, eventually merge into the Indus River before flowing into Sindh province and the Arabian Sea, raising concerns of further downstream flooding.

Meanwhile, across the border, water levels in Himalayan rivers have begun to subside after days of torrential rain and landslides. Forecasters expect the intensity of monsoon downpours to ease from Thursday, offering some relief to both countries battling the seasonal deluge.