Afghanistan Faces Deepening Crisis as Millions Return to a Collapsing Economy, UN Warns

Afghanistan’s fragile economy is buckling under growing strain, with nine in ten households resorting to skipping meals, selling belongings, or taking on debt to survive, according to a United Nations report released on Wednesday. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) warned that mass deportations from neighboring countries are worsening what it described as the country’s most severe crisis since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

The UNDP said nearly one in ten Afghans living abroad has been forced back home, with more than 4.5 million returnees arriving since 2023, mostly from Iran and Pakistan. The sudden influx has increased Afghanistan’s population by about 10 percent, putting immense pressure on already strained public services. Natural disasters, including earthquakes, floods, and drought, have destroyed around 8,000 homes, further worsening conditions for the displaced and the poor.

A nationwide survey of more than 48,000 households revealed that over half of returnees have skipped medical treatment to afford food, while 45 percent rely on unsafe water sources such as open springs and unprotected wells. Nearly 90 percent of returning families are in debt, owing between $373 and $900 — up to five times the average monthly income of $100. In areas hosting large numbers of returnees, unemployment among them stands at 95 percent, while one teacher often serves between 70 and 100 students.

The UNDP cautioned that without urgent action to strengthen livelihoods, improve infrastructure, and maintain humanitarian assistance, Afghanistan risks falling deeper into poverty and instability. The report also noted that international donor pledges have declined sharply since 2021, covering only a fraction of the UN’s $3.1 billion appeal for humanitarian aid this year.

Following a deadly earthquake in eastern Afghanistan in September, the Taliban government appealed for greater international support and protested Pakistan’s mass expulsions of Afghan nationals, expressing “deep concern” over their treatment. The Taliban’s Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation and Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs did not respond to requests for comment on the UNDP report.

Women are among those most affected by the economic collapse and social restrictions. Female participation in Afghanistan’s workforce has dropped to just 6 percent, one of the lowest rates globally. Kanni Wignaraja, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific, said, “In some provinces, one in four households depend on women as the main breadwinner, so when women are prevented from working, families, communities, and the country lose out.”

Households headed by women — which make up as much as 26 percent of returnee families in some districts — face the highest risk of hunger and displacement. The UNDP called on Taliban authorities to allocate more resources to assist vulnerable groups and urged international donors to lift restrictions on female aid workers.

“Cutting women out of frontline aid work means cutting off vital services for those who need them most,” Wignaraja said, warning that the window to prevent a deeper humanitarian disaster is closing rapidly.