Oil Prices Rise Amid Ukraine Talks and Middle East Tensions

Oil prices climbed on Monday as investors monitored talks between the US and Ukrainian presidents on a potential peace deal and ongoing tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt supply.

Brent crude futures increased 63 cents, or 1.04 percent, to $61.27 per barrel by 0443 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 58 cents, or 1.02 percent, to $57.32 per barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen more than 2 percent on Friday, as markets weighed the risk of a global supply surplus and the potential for a Ukraine peace agreement.

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met over the weekend at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. At a joint press conference on Sunday, Trump said negotiations were “getting a lot closer, maybe very close,” while noting that the status of the Donbas region remains unresolved. He added that it would be clear “in a few weeks” whether talks will succeed.

Despite progress, analysts warn that a breakthrough on territorial issues appears unlikely in the near term. Mingyu Gao, chief energy and chemical researcher at China Futures Co. Ltd., said the absence of agreement on key territorial disputes could leave any Russia–Ukraine peace deal stalled.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to Monday’s price gains. Russia and Ukraine continued to target each other’s energy infrastructure over the weekend, while developments in the Gulf region have raised concerns about supply disruptions. China-based analyst Yang An of Haitong Futures noted that Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and Iran’s statements regarding a “full-scale war” with the US, Europe, and Israel have heightened market uncertainty.

Analysts are also watching other global factors that could affect oil supply. IG analyst Tony Sycamore highlighted US enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and potential consequences from the US military strike on ISIS targets in Nigeria, a country that produces roughly 1.5 million barrels per day.

WTI crude is expected to trade within a $55-$60 range in the near term, with investors closely following developments in Ukraine, the Middle East, and other regions affecting global oil supply.

The combination of ongoing conflict in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East underscores the delicate balance in the oil market, where geopolitical events continue to drive price movements despite global supply considerations.