Oil Prices Edge Higher Amid Uncertainty Over Trade Talks and OPEC+ Supply Prospects

Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, but ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations and the possibility of increased OPEC+ output kept markets on edge, weighing on the global growth and fuel demand outlook.

Brent crude futures climbed 4 cents, or 0.06 percent, to $66.91 a barrel by 11:12 a.m. Saudi time. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 9 cents, or 0.14 percent, trading at $63.11 a barrel. Both benchmarks posted modest gains for the third consecutive session.

“Absence of news is pushing oil prices modestly higher as traders are positioned short ahead of potential increased OPEC+ supply from the May 5 meeting and a significant production boost in the USA,” said Michael McCarthy, CEO of online trading platform Moomoo Australia.

OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are set to meet on May 5. Several member countries are expected to propose another acceleration in production increases, following a similar move last month. The anticipation of higher output has fueled concerns about a potential supply glut, especially as worries persist over the impact of tariffs on global economic growth.

Last week, both Brent and WTI recorded declines of over 1 percent, pressured by the uncertainty surrounding trade and supply dynamics.

Markets have been rattled by conflicting signals from Washington and Beijing regarding the status of trade talks. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese officials offered differing accounts over the weekend, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denying that active negotiations were ongoing, contradicting Trump’s earlier claims. Meanwhile, Beijing also denied that talks were taking place.

“Market players will remain on the lookout for a thaw in the U.S.-China trade war as an opportunity to buy,” noted Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis firm Vanda Insights.

Adding further complexity to the global picture, nuclear talks between the United States and Iran resumed this week in Oman. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressed caution over the prospects of a successful agreement.

Meanwhile, tensions escalated in Iran after a powerful explosion at the country’s largest port, Bandar Abbas, left at least 40 dead and over 1,200 injured, according to state media reports.

In a separate development, senior Trump administration officials pressed Russia and Ukraine to advance peace negotiations during meetings in the Vatican, following a private discussion between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

With multiple geopolitical factors in play, investors are bracing for further volatility in the energy markets in the coming weeks.