IEA’s record oil reserve release seen offering limited relief to global markets

The International Energy Agency has announced the largest release of emergency oil reserves in its history, but analysts say the move is unlikely to provide lasting relief to global energy markets as tensions continue in the Middle East.

The agency said on March 11 that it would release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles held by member countries. The decision came as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted amid the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

Despite the scale of the announcement, market reaction was relatively muted. Oil prices remained below the $119-per-barrel level recorded on March 9, which marked the highest point since mid-2022.

By 1:20 p.m. GMT on March 12, benchmark Brent crude was trading at $98.26 a barrel, up $6.28 on the day. West Texas Intermediate crude was also higher, rising $5.84 to reach $93.09 per barrel.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said the volume of oil being released met expectations but raised concerns about how long the conflict might continue.

“Some say that the size of the release actually increased worries that the war could last longer,” she said. Ozkardeskaya noted that 400 million barrels would cover global demand tracked by the agency for only about nine to ten days.

She added that the IEA system currently holds roughly 1.2 billion barrels in reserves, meaning stockpiles could be depleted quickly if disruptions persist. According to Ozkardeskaya, the agency’s executive director Fatih Birol has emphasized that the real solution for markets would be the restoration of normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy and commodities broker PVM Oil Associates also expressed doubts about the immediate impact of the measure. In a market note, the firm said the actual release of oil may not occur immediately because details still need to be finalized among member countries. Any objection from a participating state could delay implementation.

The company also pointed out that emergency reserves would eventually need to be replenished once the current crisis passes.

A more optimistic outlook came from Norbert Rucker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer. He said that despite current disruptions, significant damage to major oil infrastructure has not yet been reported.

Rucker suggested that supply disruptions could peak later in the week and gradually ease toward the end of the month. Under that scenario, he said, the planned release of reserves could offset the short-term impact on supply.

He added that current oil prices largely reflect uncertainty in the market, with traders factoring in higher transport costs and a geopolitical risk premium.

Financial institutions have also revised their outlook for energy prices. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for oil prices in the final quarter of 2026, citing expectations that disruptions to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz may persist. The bank now predicts Brent crude could reach $71 per barrel during that period, up from its earlier estimate of $66.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings increased its 2026 Brent price assumption to $70 per barrel from $63, citing the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing uncertainty about the duration of the conflict.

The ratings agency said prices could decline once shipping routes reopen, but warned that a prolonged disruption in the region could push average annual energy prices higher.