Fitch Affirms Jordan’s ‘BB-’ Credit Rating with Stable Outlook Amid Ongoing Economic Reforms

Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Jordan’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at “BB-” with a stable outlook, citing the country’s macroeconomic stability, progress in fiscal reforms, and continued access to resilient financing sources.

The U.S.-based credit agency noted that Jordan’s rating reflects its steady economic trajectory and reliable support from international partners. Key contributors to the country’s financial resilience include a liquid domestic banking sector, a strong public pension fund, and sustained multilateral and bilateral assistance.

Despite the affirmation, Jordan’s credit standing remains below regional peers such as Saudi Arabia, which holds an “A+” rating, and the United Arab Emirates, rated “AA-.” Fitch attributed Jordan’s lower rating to structural challenges, including high government debt, moderate economic growth, ongoing political risks, and a persistent current account deficit.

“While the outlook remains stable, the rating is constrained by elevated levels of government debt and net external liabilities, as well as risks related to both domestic and regional instability,” the agency stated.

Jordan’s government continues to pursue a comprehensive reform agenda aimed at modernizing its economic, public administration, and political systems. Fitch highlighted that while these efforts are promising, the pace of reform is likely to be tempered by social and institutional constraints.

Economic growth in Jordan reached 2.5% in 2024, and Fitch projects a gradual rise to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026. These projections are supported by a revival in tourism—particularly from Europe—following a partial de-escalation of regional conflicts, and increased exports to Iraq and potentially Syria.

However, global trade uncertainties and the imposition of U.S. tariffs are expected to weigh on Jordan’s export sector. Apparel, which comprises more than half of Jordan’s exports to the U.S., could face up to 20% duties, though precious metals and stones, which account for 27%, are exempt.

The general government deficit stabilized at 2.4% of GDP in 2024, with Fitch forecasting a slight increase to 2.6% over the next two years due to rising interest payments. The agency warned that persistent geopolitical tensions—especially in the wake of the ongoing Gaza conflict and strained Israel-Iran relations—could further complicate Jordan’s economic outlook.

Jordan is currently supported by a $1.2 billion Extended Fund Facility from the International Monetary Fund and a €1 billion macro-financial aid package from the European Union, both seen as critical to maintaining fiscal stability.

Fitch signaled that a sustained reduction in public debt and stronger post-pandemic growth could lead to a future ratings upgrade.