Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research
BTC surpassed $80,000 over the weekend, marking the start of a significant uptrend following its previous high. At the same time, ETH climbed past $3,200, and SOL reached $210, with broad gains seen across altcoins. In the past 24 hours, total market liquidation has exceeded $600 million, with around $300 million each for long and short positions. Market sentiment has been robust, with a strong increase in bullish momentum.
Key indicators to keep an eye on include funding rates for contracts. As BTC has risen, there has been significant short liquidation in the derivatives market. The funding rates for long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL have begun to deviate from their normal value, annualized at 10%. If these rates continue to rise along with prices, it would indicate increasing market leverage, raising the probability of significant market fluctuations.
Another factor to watch is the relative gains of BTC and altcoins. While BTC broke through the $80,000 level in the past 24 hours, there has not been a clear rebound in BTC exchange rates for ETH, SOL, and other tokens. This indicates that BTC is absorbing liquidity from the market, signalling a tightening of market funds. This may lead to extreme volatility in derivatives markets due to liquidity constraints.
Finally, the relative prices of call and put options suggest strong market sentiment. In the options market, BTC call options have become significantly more expensive than put options, showing a strong bullish bias and a degree of market consensus for further upward movements.
This week, we expect the volatility of BTC and ETH to continue to increase, with potential upward breakthroughs followed by rapid corrections. The predicted range for BTC this week is between $76,000 and $85,000, while ETH is expected to fluctuate between $2,800 and $3,500. Users should exercise caution when using leverage and consider taking profits promptly based on market conditions.
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