Sharp Drop in Chinese Military Flights Around Taiwan Raises Questions

Taiwanese defence officials have reported a sharp decline in Chinese military aircraft activity near the island over the past 10 days, prompting analysts to question why the normally frequent sorties have slowed so dramatically.

Taiwan has not detected a single Chinese military aircraft around the island for nine of the past 10 days, according to figures released daily by the island’s defence ministry. The unexpected lull has surprised observers who have grown accustomed to regular flights by Chinese fighter jets and other military aircraft in the area.

China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly warned it could use force to bring the island under its control. In recent years, Beijing has increased military pressure on Taiwan by sending aircraft and warships around the island almost every day.

Since February 28, however, only two Chinese aircraft have been recorded within a single 24-hour period near Taiwan. That figure is far lower than the same period last year, when 86 aircraft were reported. The current pause marks the longest stretch without aircraft detections since monitoring of the data began in 2024.

Chinese naval activity has not changed significantly. An average of six Chinese warships have been spotted around Taiwan each day over the past 10 days, roughly the same number recorded a year ago.

Overall, Chinese military flights near Taiwan dropped about 42 percent during January and February compared with the same period last year. The number of warships detected during those months was about 4.5 percent lower.

Security experts have offered several possible explanations for the sudden drop in aircraft activity. One theory points to China’s annual political meetings in Beijing, commonly known as the “two sessions,” where top leaders gather to discuss policy and economic planning.

Others have suggested the slowdown could be linked to internal issues within China’s military following recent leadership changes and investigations. Some analysts also noted that international events, including a planned visit by US President Donald Trump to Beijing later this month and tensions in the Middle East, could be influencing military priorities.

Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the lack of a clear explanation has left analysts uncertain.

“I didn’t expect to be worried about the cessation of PLA operations around Taiwan, but the lack of a rational explanation is disconcerting,” Thompson wrote on Substack.

Ben Lewis, who runs the analysis site PLATracker, described the situation as a significant break from routine activity but said there was no evidence of preparations for immediate military action.

“The longer the activity gap persists, the more concerned I will be about broader implications, but I have not seen any indications that the PRC is preparing for any major kinetic action,” he said.

Some Taiwanese analysts believe the pause could be a political tactic. Su Tzu-yun of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei suggested Beijing might be trying to weaken public support for a proposal by President Lai Ching-te to increase defence spending by $40 billion over eight years.

A Taiwanese security official also warned that the slowdown might be designed to create the impression that China is reducing pressure on Taiwan in order to influence international perceptions.

The United States, which has no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan but remains its strongest security partner and main arms supplier, continues to monitor developments closely.

“We must not let our guard down,” the official said.wo