Doomsday is upon us, and still, the politicians continue to squabble amongst themselves and produce nothing that even resembles a plan. Despite the news constantly revolving around Brexit, we never seem to be any closer to a resolution as to what will be done.
Those in favor of Brexit are splintered into different factions, with some wanting us to have a clean break on WTO terms and a hard border in Ireland, others wanting to accept the withdrawal agreement Theresa May has negotiated and a final group wanting us to try and negotiate a better deal.
Although somewhat more united, there are still fractures in the remaining side of the debate, with some MPs fearing a no-deal Brexit and because of it, are willing to back the Prime Minister’s deal. There are also those who would like us to go back and negotiate another deal, while others are determined that the people should have a say now that more of the facts are known.
The question is, what are the possibilities in each scenario? Here we will take a look at what could happen in the coming months.
Listen to most MPs, even those who want Brexit, and they’ll tell you that they’re trying to avoid a scenario that involves no deal. Unfortunately what they don’t seem to grasp is that their decision to back what could be the biggest act of national self-harm could become a reality.
But they don’t care really. MPs often have other jobs on the side and will be relatively unaffected if the s***storm hits us. It won’t matter to them if the housing market crashes, as it means they’ll be able to buy more houses on the cheap and force more young people to rent housing, rather than own it. Sharing is caring after all, but that only applies if you attended Eton with Jacob Rees-Mogg and his chums.
Theresa May’s Deal
Thanks to Jeremy Corbyn’s weak and ineffectual stance as opposed to the Tory government, which resembles a leaf standing up to a brick, Theresa May’s deal, which has been roundly criticized, looks more likely to come into force as we approach Nigel Farage’s annual day of orgasm.
The deal includes a back-stop, which effectively keeps us in the single market until we can work out what the hell we’re supposed to do with the Irish border issue. It’s the indefinite period that we’ll be tied to the single market which is the biggest issue. We won’t have a say on EU laws like we would if we were to remain and we wouldn’t be free to do whatever we like per a no-deal scenario, it’s the worst of both worlds.
A New Deal
This one is tricky as the EU have said there will be no negotiations on the withdrawal agreement. It could be the case that it’s akin to thumbing a tea-towel into a cat’s anus. It’s unwelcome and things may end badly if we try.
Another alternative which keeps being brushed off the table because the 2016 referendum is the “Will of the People”. The problem is, many who voted have now passed away, in fact over close to 1.4 million people have died, meaning that if they all left voters, remain would have won the referendum.
What also needs to be taken into account is the number of young people who have reached 18 and are now eligible to vote. By the middle of 2017, there were 766,000 18-year olds in the country. With a high number of young people choosing to remain over leave, that would further extend remain’s victory in a second referendum. The “Will of the People” in 2019 could be far different from that of 2016, but we all know Theresa May fears another referendum.
It’s a political nightmare and one which doesn’t look to be ending anytime soon. If you think you can predict what the holy hell is actually going to happen with Brexit, then check out the latest odds in Brexit betting.